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Bozüyük Vitraspor vs Denizlispor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Bozüyük Vitraspor
Bozüyük Vitraspor
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Denizlispor
Denizlispor
9/25/2018Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundBozüyük Şehir Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bozüyük Vitraspor22%
×Draw22%
Denizlispor56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bozüyük Vitraspor
1.13
Denizlispor
1.92

Denizlispor creates 70% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Bozüyük Vitraspor
1.00
Denizlispor
2.50

allows per match

Bozüyük Vitraspor
1.33
Denizlispor
1.25

finishing

Bozüyük Vitraspor+0.00on par
Denizlispor+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bozüyük Vitraspor ↓

Denizlispor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Bozüyük Vitraspor or draw
44%
Bozüyük Vitraspor or Denizlispor
78%
Draw or Denizlispor
78%

Winning margin

Bozüyük Vitraspor wins by 2+
8%
Denizlispor wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Bozüyük Vitraspor 1+ goals
68%
Bozüyük Vitraspor 2+ goals
31%
Bozüyük Vitraspor 3+ goals
11%
Denizlispor 1+ goals
85%
Denizlispor 2+ goals
57%
Denizlispor 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Bozüyük Vitraspor (draw refunded)
28%
Denizlispor (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bozüyük Vitraspor at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Denizlispor away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bozüyük Vitraspor attack 1.00 + Denizlispor defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Denizlispor attack 2.50 + Bozüyük Vitraspor defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Bozüyük Vitraspor scores more
22%
level
22%
Denizlispor scores more
56%

Denizlispor at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Denizlispor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Bozüyük Vitraspor 0–1 Denizlispor

Denizlispor beat Bozüyük Vitraspor 1-0 in Türkiye Kupası on September 25, 2018.

The match was played at Bozüyük Şehir Stadı in Bozüyük.