Boyacá Chicó W 0–0 Real San Andrés W

Boyacá Chicó W

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Real San Andrés W

4/30/2023

Liga Femenina · Apertura - 13Estadio Santiago de las Atalayas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Boyacá Chicó W56%

×Draw23%

Real San Andrés W21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Boyacá Chicó WExpected goals in this matchReal San Andrés W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.00

Boyacá Chicó W

1.80

Real San Andrés W

1.00

Boyacá Chicó W creates 80% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 32 away

0.88

creates per match

0.75

1.25

allows per match

2.72

creates per match

Boyacá Chicó W

0.88

Real San Andrés W

0.75

allows per match

Boyacá Chicó W

1.25

Real San Andrés W

2.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Boyacá Chicó W+0.00on par

Real San Andrés W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boyacá Chicó W ↓

Real San Andrés W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Boyacá Chicó W or draw

79%

Boyacá Chicó W or Real San Andrés W

77%

Draw or Real San Andrés W

44%

Winning margin

Boyacá Chicó W wins by 2+

32%

Real San Andrés W wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Boyacá Chicó W 1+ goals

83%

Boyacá Chicó W 2+ goals

54%

Boyacá Chicó W 3+ goals

27%

Real San Andrés W 1+ goals

63%

Real San Andrés W 2+ goals

26%

Real San Andrés W 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Boyacá Chicó W (draw refunded)

73%

Real San Andrés W (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boyacá Chicó W at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Real San Andrés W away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.72 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boyacá Chicó W attack 0.88 + Real San Andrés W defence 2.72 → ÷2 → 1.80

Real San Andrés W attack 0.75 + Boyacá Chicó W defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Boyacá Chicó W scores more

56%

level

23%

Real San Andrés W scores more

21%

Boyacá Chicó W at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Boyacá Chicó W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff