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Boyacá Chicó W vs Junior W — Liga Femenina 2020

Boyacá Chicó W
Boyacá Chicó W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Junior W
Junior W
5/23/2023Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Apertura - 17Estadio Santiago de las Atalayas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Boyacá Chicó W42%
×Draw28%
Junior W30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boyacá Chicó W
1.25
Junior W
1.02

Boyacá Chicó W creates 23% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 43 away

creates per match

Boyacá Chicó W
0.88
Junior W
0.79

allows per match

Boyacá Chicó W
1.25
Junior W
1.63

finishing

Boyacá Chicó W+0.00on par
Junior W+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boyacá Chicó W ↓

Junior W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Boyacá Chicó W or draw
70%
Boyacá Chicó W or Junior W
72%
Draw or Junior W
58%

Winning margin

Boyacá Chicó W wins by 2+
18%
Junior W wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Boyacá Chicó W 1+ goals
71%
Boyacá Chicó W 2+ goals
36%
Boyacá Chicó W 3+ goals
13%
Junior W 1+ goals
64%
Junior W 2+ goals
27%
Junior W 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Boyacá Chicó W (draw refunded)
58%
Junior W (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boyacá Chicó W at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Junior W away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.63 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boyacá Chicó W attack 0.88 + Junior W defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.25

Junior W attack 0.79 + Boyacá Chicó W defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Boyacá Chicó W scores more
42%
level
28%
Junior W scores more
30%

Boyacá Chicó W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Boyacá Chicó W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Femenina: Boyacá Chicó W 1–1 Junior W

Boyacá Chicó W and Junior W drew 1-1 in Liga Femenina on May 23, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Santiago de las Atalayas in Yopal.