Boyacá Chicó W 2–0 Independiente Medellín W

Boyacá Chicó W

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Independiente Medellín W

4/16/2023

Liga Femenina · Apertura - 10Estadio Santiago de las Atalayas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Boyacá Chicó W33%

×Draw29%

Independiente Medellín W38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Boyacá Chicó WExpected goals in this matchIndependiente Medellín W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.18

Boyacá Chicó W

1.09

Independiente Medellín W

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 56 away

0.88

creates per match

1.11

1.25

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Boyacá Chicó W

0.88

Independiente Medellín W

1.11

allows per match

Boyacá Chicó W

1.25

Independiente Medellín W

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Boyacá Chicó W+0.00on par

Independiente Medellín W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boyacá Chicó W ↓

Independiente Medellín W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Boyacá Chicó W or draw

62%

Boyacá Chicó W or Independiente Medellín W

71%

Draw or Independiente Medellín W

67%

Winning margin

Boyacá Chicó W wins by 2+

13%

Independiente Medellín W wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Boyacá Chicó W 1+ goals

66%

Boyacá Chicó W 2+ goals

30%

Boyacá Chicó W 3+ goals

10%

Independiente Medellín W 1+ goals

69%

Independiente Medellín W 2+ goals

33%

Independiente Medellín W 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Boyacá Chicó W (draw refunded)

47%

Independiente Medellín W (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boyacá Chicó W at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Independiente Medellín W away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.30 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boyacá Chicó W attack 0.88 + Independiente Medellín W defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.09

Independiente Medellín W attack 1.11 + Boyacá Chicó W defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Boyacá Chicó W scores more

33%

level

29%

Independiente Medellín W scores more

38%

Independiente Medellín W at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Independiente Medellín W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff