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Boyacá Chicó W vs Deportivo Pereira W — Liga Femenina 2020

Boyacá Chicó W
Boyacá Chicó W
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Deportivo Pereira W
Deportivo Pereira W
2/12/2023Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Apertura - 2Estadio Santiago de las Atalayas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Boyacá Chicó W35%
×Draw28%
Deportivo Pereira W37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boyacá Chicó W
1.15
Deportivo Pereira W
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 27 away

creates per match

Boyacá Chicó W
0.88
Deportivo Pereira W
1.11

allows per match

Boyacá Chicó W
1.25
Deportivo Pereira W
1.41

finishing

Boyacá Chicó W+0.00on par
Deportivo Pereira W+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boyacá Chicó W ↓

Deportivo Pereira W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Boyacá Chicó W or draw
63%
Boyacá Chicó W or Deportivo Pereira W
72%
Draw or Deportivo Pereira W
65%

Winning margin

Boyacá Chicó W wins by 2+
14%
Deportivo Pereira W wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Boyacá Chicó W 1+ goals
68%
Boyacá Chicó W 2+ goals
32%
Boyacá Chicó W 3+ goals
11%
Deportivo Pereira W 1+ goals
69%
Deportivo Pereira W 2+ goals
33%
Deportivo Pereira W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Boyacá Chicó W (draw refunded)
49%
Deportivo Pereira W (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boyacá Chicó W at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Deportivo Pereira W away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.41 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boyacá Chicó W attack 0.88 + Deportivo Pereira W defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.15

Deportivo Pereira W attack 1.11 + Boyacá Chicó W defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Boyacá Chicó W scores more
35%
level
28%
Deportivo Pereira W scores more
37%

Deportivo Pereira W at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Deportivo Pereira W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Femenina: Boyacá Chicó W 1–2 Deportivo Pereira W

Deportivo Pereira W beat Boyacá Chicó W 2-1 in Liga Femenina on February 12, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Santiago de las Atalayas in Yopal.