Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bövinghausen vs Verl II — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Bövinghausen
Bövinghausen
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Verl II
Verl II
9/29/2024Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 8Sportplatz Bövinghausen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Bövinghausen33%
×Draw21%
Verl II46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bövinghausen
1.73
Verl II
2.08

Verl II creates 20% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 35 away

creates per match

Bövinghausen
1.66
Verl II
1.34

allows per match

Bövinghausen
2.83
Verl II
1.80

finishing

Bövinghausen+0.00on par
Verl II+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bövinghausen ↓

Verl II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Bövinghausen or draw
54%
Bövinghausen or Verl II
79%
Draw or Verl II
67%

Winning margin

Bövinghausen wins by 2+
16%
Verl II wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Bövinghausen 1+ goals
82%
Bövinghausen 2+ goals
52%
Bövinghausen 3+ goals
25%
Verl II 1+ goals
87%
Verl II 2+ goals
61%
Verl II 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Bövinghausen (draw refunded)
41%
Verl II (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bövinghausen at home — creates 1.66, concedes 2.83 · 47 matches

Verl II away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.80 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bövinghausen attack 1.66 + Verl II defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.73

Verl II attack 1.34 + Bövinghausen defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bövinghausen scores more
33%
level
21%
Verl II scores more
46%

Verl II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Verl II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Bövinghausen 0–2 Verl II

Verl II beat Bövinghausen 2-0 in Oberliga - Westfalen on September 29, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz Bövinghausen in Dortmund.