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Bövinghausen vs Sportfreunde Lotte — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Bövinghausen
Bövinghausen
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Sportfreunde Lotte
Sportfreunde Lotte
8/13/2022Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 1Sportplatz Bövinghausen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Bövinghausen23%
×Draw19%
Sportfreunde Lotte58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bövinghausen
1.49
Sportfreunde Lotte
2.42

Sportfreunde Lotte creates 62% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 34 away

creates per match

Bövinghausen
1.66
Sportfreunde Lotte
2.00

allows per match

Bövinghausen
2.83
Sportfreunde Lotte
1.32

finishing

Bövinghausen+0.00on par
Sportfreunde Lotte+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bövinghausen ↓

Sportfreunde Lotte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Bövinghausen or draw
42%
Bövinghausen or Sportfreunde Lotte
81%
Draw or Sportfreunde Lotte
77%

Winning margin

Bövinghausen wins by 2+
10%
Sportfreunde Lotte wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Bövinghausen 1+ goals
77%
Bövinghausen 2+ goals
44%
Bövinghausen 3+ goals
19%
Sportfreunde Lotte 1+ goals
91%
Sportfreunde Lotte 2+ goals
69%
Sportfreunde Lotte 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Bövinghausen (draw refunded)
29%
Sportfreunde Lotte (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bövinghausen at home — creates 1.66, concedes 2.83 · 47 matches

Sportfreunde Lotte away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.32 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bövinghausen attack 1.66 + Sportfreunde Lotte defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.49

Sportfreunde Lotte attack 2.00 + Bövinghausen defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Bövinghausen scores more
23%
level
19%
Sportfreunde Lotte scores more
58%

Sportfreunde Lotte at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Sportfreunde Lotte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Bövinghausen 2–1 Sportfreunde Lotte

Bövinghausen beat Sportfreunde Lotte 2-1 in Oberliga - Westfalen on August 13, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Bövinghausen in Dortmund.