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Bövinghausen vs Preußen Münster II — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Bövinghausen
Bövinghausen
CANC
13:00
Preußen Münster II
Preußen Münster II
3/30/2025Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 28Sportplatz Bövinghausen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Bövinghausen27%
×Draw20%
Preußen Münster II53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bövinghausen
1.58
Preußen Münster II
2.27

Preußen Münster II creates 44% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 88 away

creates per match

Bövinghausen
1.66
Preußen Münster II
1.72

allows per match

Bövinghausen
2.83
Preußen Münster II
1.51

finishing

Bövinghausen+0.00on par
Preußen Münster II+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bövinghausen ↓

Preußen Münster II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Bövinghausen or draw
47%
Bövinghausen or Preußen Münster II
80%
Draw or Preußen Münster II
73%

Winning margin

Bövinghausen wins by 2+
12%
Preußen Münster II wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Bövinghausen 1+ goals
79%
Bövinghausen 2+ goals
47%
Bövinghausen 3+ goals
21%
Preußen Münster II 1+ goals
90%
Preußen Münster II 2+ goals
66%
Preußen Münster II 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Bövinghausen (draw refunded)
34%
Preußen Münster II (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bövinghausen at home — creates 1.66, concedes 2.83 · 47 matches

Preußen Münster II away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.51 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bövinghausen attack 1.66 + Preußen Münster II defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.58

Preußen Münster II attack 1.72 + Bövinghausen defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Bövinghausen scores more
27%
level
20%
Preußen Münster II scores more
53%

Preußen Münster II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Preußen Münster II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bövinghausen face Preußen Münster II (Oberliga - Westfalen)

Oberliga - Westfalen returns with Bövinghausen hosting Preußen Münster II. Match starts March 30, 2025. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Bövinghausen host Preußen Münster II at Sportplatz Bövinghausen.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.