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Bövinghausen vs Eintracht Rheine — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Bövinghausen
Bövinghausen
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Eintracht Rheine
Eintracht Rheine
12/3/2022Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 16Sportplatz Bövinghausen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Bövinghausen35%
×Draw20%
Eintracht Rheine44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bövinghausen
1.94
Eintracht Rheine
2.19

Eintracht Rheine creates 13% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 89 away

creates per match

Bövinghausen
1.66
Eintracht Rheine
1.54

allows per match

Bövinghausen
2.83
Eintracht Rheine
2.22

finishing

Bövinghausen+0.00on par
Eintracht Rheine+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bövinghausen ↓

Eintracht Rheine →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Bövinghausen or draw
56%
Bövinghausen or Eintracht Rheine
80%
Draw or Eintracht Rheine
65%

Winning margin

Bövinghausen wins by 2+
18%
Eintracht Rheine wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Bövinghausen 1+ goals
86%
Bövinghausen 2+ goals
58%
Bövinghausen 3+ goals
30%
Eintracht Rheine 1+ goals
89%
Eintracht Rheine 2+ goals
64%
Eintracht Rheine 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Bövinghausen (draw refunded)
44%
Eintracht Rheine (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bövinghausen at home — creates 1.66, concedes 2.83 · 47 matches

Eintracht Rheine away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.22 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bövinghausen attack 1.66 + Eintracht Rheine defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.94

Eintracht Rheine attack 1.54 + Bövinghausen defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bövinghausen scores more
35%
level
20%
Eintracht Rheine scores more
44%

Eintracht Rheine at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Eintracht Rheine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Bövinghausen 3–1 Eintracht Rheine

Bövinghausen beat Eintracht Rheine 3-1 in Oberliga - Westfalen on December 3, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Bövinghausen in Dortmund.