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Bövinghausen vs Delbrücker SC — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Bövinghausen
Bövinghausen
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Delbrücker SC
Delbrücker SC
10/9/2022Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 9Sportplatz Bövinghausen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bövinghausen42%
×Draw20%
Delbrücker SC38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bövinghausen
2.21
Delbrücker SC
2.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 17 away

creates per match

Bövinghausen
1.66
Delbrücker SC
1.41

allows per match

Bövinghausen
2.83
Delbrücker SC
2.76

finishing

Bövinghausen+0.00on par
Delbrücker SC+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bövinghausen ↓

Delbrücker SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Bövinghausen or draw
62%
Bövinghausen or Delbrücker SC
80%
Draw or Delbrücker SC
58%

Winning margin

Bövinghausen wins by 2+
24%
Delbrücker SC wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Bövinghausen 1+ goals
89%
Bövinghausen 2+ goals
65%
Bövinghausen 3+ goals
38%
Delbrücker SC 1+ goals
88%
Delbrücker SC 2+ goals
62%
Delbrücker SC 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Bövinghausen (draw refunded)
52%
Delbrücker SC (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bövinghausen at home — creates 1.66, concedes 2.83 · 47 matches

Delbrücker SC away — creates 1.41, concedes 2.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bövinghausen attack 1.66 + Delbrücker SC defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 2.21

Delbrücker SC attack 1.41 + Bövinghausen defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bövinghausen scores more
42%
level
20%
Delbrücker SC scores more
38%

Bövinghausen at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bövinghausen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Bövinghausen 3–1 Delbrücker SC

Bövinghausen beat Delbrücker SC 3-1 in Oberliga - Westfalen on October 9, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Bövinghausen in Dortmund.