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Bövinghausen vs Concordia Wiemelhausen — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Bövinghausen
Bövinghausen
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 4
Concordia Wiemelhausen
Concordia Wiemelhausen
9/15/2024Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 6Sportplatz Bövinghausen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Bövinghausen49%
×Draw19%
Concordia Wiemelhausen32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bövinghausen
2.55
Concordia Wiemelhausen
2.06

Bövinghausen creates 24% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 18 away

creates per match

Bövinghausen
1.66
Concordia Wiemelhausen
1.28

allows per match

Bövinghausen
2.83
Concordia Wiemelhausen
3.44

finishing

Bövinghausen+0.00on par
Concordia Wiemelhausen+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bövinghausen ↓

Concordia Wiemelhausen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–25%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Bövinghausen or draw
68%
Bövinghausen or Concordia Wiemelhausen
81%
Draw or Concordia Wiemelhausen
51%

Winning margin

Bövinghausen wins by 2+
30%
Concordia Wiemelhausen wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Bövinghausen 1+ goals
92%
Bövinghausen 2+ goals
72%
Bövinghausen 3+ goals
46%
Concordia Wiemelhausen 1+ goals
87%
Concordia Wiemelhausen 2+ goals
61%
Concordia Wiemelhausen 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Bövinghausen (draw refunded)
60%
Concordia Wiemelhausen (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bövinghausen at home — creates 1.66, concedes 2.83 · 47 matches

Concordia Wiemelhausen away — creates 1.28, concedes 3.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bövinghausen attack 1.66 + Concordia Wiemelhausen defence 3.44 → ÷2 → 2.55

Concordia Wiemelhausen attack 1.28 + Bövinghausen defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Bövinghausen scores more
49%
level
19%
Concordia Wiemelhausen scores more
32%

Bövinghausen at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Bövinghausen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Bövinghausen 1–5 Concordia Wiemelhausen

Concordia Wiemelhausen beat Bövinghausen 5-1 in Oberliga - Westfalen on September 15, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz Bövinghausen in Dortmund.