Bövinghausen 4–0 ASC Dortmund: Result & Stats

Bövinghausen

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

ASC Dortmund

2/11/2023

Oberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 19Sportplatz Bövinghausen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Bövinghausen26%

×Draw20%

ASC Dortmund55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BövinghausenExpected goals in this matchASC Dortmund

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

2.40

Bövinghausen

1.61

ASC Dortmund

2.40

ASC Dortmund creates 49% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 89 away

1.66

creates per match

1.96

2.83

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Bövinghausen

1.66

ASC Dortmund

1.96

allows per match

Bövinghausen

2.83

ASC Dortmund

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bövinghausen+0.00on par

ASC Dortmund+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bövinghausen ↓

ASC Dortmund →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–34%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Bövinghausen or draw

45%

Bövinghausen or ASC Dortmund

80%

Draw or ASC Dortmund

74%

Winning margin

Bövinghausen wins by 2+

12%

ASC Dortmund wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Bövinghausen 1+ goals

80%

Bövinghausen 2+ goals

48%

Bövinghausen 3+ goals

22%

ASC Dortmund 1+ goals

91%

ASC Dortmund 2+ goals

69%

ASC Dortmund 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

Bövinghausen (draw refunded)

32%

ASC Dortmund (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bövinghausen at home — creates 1.66, concedes 2.83 · 47 matches

ASC Dortmund away — creates 1.96, concedes 1.57 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bövinghausen attack 1.66 + ASC Dortmund defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.61

ASC Dortmund attack 1.96 + Bövinghausen defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Bövinghausen scores more

26%

level

20%

ASC Dortmund scores more

55%

ASC Dortmund at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "ASC Dortmund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff