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Bouselem vs Sfax Railways — Ligue 2 2020

Bouselem
Bouselem
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sfax Railways
Sfax Railways
11/22/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Bouselem41%
×Draw29%
Sfax Railways30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bouselem
1.19
Sfax Railways
0.98

Bouselem creates 21% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 37 away

creates per match

Bouselem
1.23
Sfax Railways
0.97

allows per match

Bouselem
1.00
Sfax Railways
1.14

finishing

Bouselem+0.00on par
Sfax Railways+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bouselem ↓

Sfax Railways →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Bouselem or draw
70%
Bouselem or Sfax Railways
71%
Draw or Sfax Railways
59%

Winning margin

Bouselem wins by 2+
18%
Sfax Railways wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bouselem 1+ goals
70%
Bouselem 2+ goals
33%
Bouselem 3+ goals
12%
Sfax Railways 1+ goals
62%
Sfax Railways 2+ goals
26%
Sfax Railways 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Bouselem (draw refunded)
57%
Sfax Railways (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bouselem at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

Sfax Railways away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.14 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bouselem attack 1.23 + Sfax Railways defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.19

Sfax Railways attack 0.97 + Bouselem defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bouselem scores more
41%
level
29%
Sfax Railways scores more
30%

Bouselem at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bouselem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bouselem vs Sfax Railways

Bouselem beat Sfax Railways 4-0 in Ligue 2 on November 22, 2025.