Bourscheid 0–7 Jeunesse Schieren: Result & Stats

Bourscheid

0 – 7

Jeunesse Schieren

9/7/2024

Cup · 1st RoundTerrain In Der Ae

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bourscheid11%

×Draw12%

Jeunesse Schieren78%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BourscheidExpected goals in this matchJeunesse Schieren

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

4.04

Bourscheid

1.56

Jeunesse Schieren

4.04

Jeunesse Schieren creates 159% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

1.80

creates per match

3.67

4.40

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Bourscheid

1.80

Jeunesse Schieren

3.67

allows per match

Bourscheid

4.40

Jeunesse Schieren

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bourscheid+0.00on par

Jeunesse Schieren+0.00on par

Total goals

Over91
Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bourscheid ↓

Jeunesse Schieren →

0–00%

0–12%

0–23%

0–35%

0–45%

1–01%

1–13%

1–25%

1–37%

1–47%

2–01%

2–12%

2–24%

2–36%

2–46%

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–33%

3–43%

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (7%) · grid covers 69% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

97%3%2.5

91%9%3.5

78%22%4.5

61%39%

Double chance

Bourscheid or draw

22%

Bourscheid or Jeunesse Schieren

88%

Draw or Jeunesse Schieren

89%

Winning margin

Bourscheid wins by 2+

Jeunesse Schieren wins by 2+

61%

Team goals

Bourscheid 1+ goals

79%

Bourscheid 2+ goals

46%

Bourscheid 3+ goals

21%

Jeunesse Schieren 1+ goals

98%

Jeunesse Schieren 2+ goals

90%

Jeunesse Schieren 3+ goals

74%

Draw no bet

Bourscheid (draw refunded)

12%

Jeunesse Schieren (draw refunded)

88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

75%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Bourscheid at home — creates 1.80, concedes 4.40 · 5 matches

Jeunesse Schieren away — creates 3.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Bourscheid attack 1.80 + Jeunesse Schieren defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.56

Jeunesse Schieren attack 3.67 + Bourscheid defence 4.40 → ÷2 → 4.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 78%?"

Bourscheid scores more

11%

level

12%

Jeunesse Schieren scores more

78%

Jeunesse Schieren at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Jeunesse Schieren will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff