Bourscheid 2–5 Avenir Beggen: Result & Stats | Cup

Bourscheid

2 – 5

Avenir Beggen

9/12/2021

Cup · 1st RoundTerrain In Der Ae

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bourscheid21%

×Draw16%

Avenir Beggen62%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BourscheidExpected goals in this matchAvenir Beggen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

3.20

Bourscheid

1.90

Avenir Beggen

3.20

Avenir Beggen creates 68% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

1.80

creates per match

2.00

4.40

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Bourscheid

1.80

Avenir Beggen

2.00

allows per match

Bourscheid

4.40

Avenir Beggen

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bourscheid+0.00on par

Avenir Beggen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over88
Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes81
No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bourscheid ↓

Avenir Beggen →

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–33%

0–43%

1–01%

1–14%

1–26%

1–37%

1–45%

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–45%

3–01%

3–12%

3–24%

3–34%

3–43%

4–00%

4–11%

4–22%

4–32%

4–42%

Most likely 1–3 (7%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

88%12%3.5

74%26%4.5

56%44%

Double chance

Bourscheid or draw

38%

Bourscheid or Avenir Beggen

84%

Draw or Avenir Beggen

79%

Winning margin

Bourscheid wins by 2+

10%

Avenir Beggen wins by 2+

43%

Team goals

Bourscheid 1+ goals

85%

Bourscheid 2+ goals

56%

Bourscheid 3+ goals

29%

Avenir Beggen 1+ goals

96%

Avenir Beggen 2+ goals

82%

Avenir Beggen 3+ goals

60%

Draw no bet

Bourscheid (draw refunded)

26%

Avenir Beggen (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

77%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Bourscheid at home — creates 1.80, concedes 4.40 · 5 matches

Avenir Beggen away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Bourscheid attack 1.80 + Avenir Beggen defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.90

Avenir Beggen attack 2.00 + Bourscheid defence 4.40 → ÷2 → 3.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 62%?"

Bourscheid scores more

21%

level

16%

Avenir Beggen scores more

62%

Avenir Beggen at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Avenir Beggen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff