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Bournemouth vs Watford — Premier League 2026

Bournemouth
Bournemouth
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Watford
Watford
E. Capoue 86'
Richarlison 73'
8/19/2017Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2Vitality Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Bournemouth47%
×Draw25%
Watford28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bournemouth
1.60
Watford
1.19

Bournemouth creates 34% more chances

Season form · 143 home / 112 away

creates per match

Bournemouth
1.41
Watford
0.96

allows per match

Bournemouth
1.42
Watford
1.79

finishing

Bournemouth+0.00on par
Watford+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bournemouth ↓

Watford →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Bournemouth or draw
72%
Bournemouth or Watford
75%
Draw or Watford
53%

Winning margin

Bournemouth wins by 2+
24%
Watford wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Bournemouth 1+ goals
80%
Bournemouth 2+ goals
47%
Bournemouth 3+ goals
22%
Watford 1+ goals
70%
Watford 2+ goals
33%
Watford 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Bournemouth (draw refunded)
62%
Watford (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bournemouth at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.42 · 143 matches

Watford away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.79 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bournemouth attack 1.41 + Watford defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.60

Watford attack 0.96 + Bournemouth defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bournemouth scores more
47%
level
25%
Watford scores more
28%

Bournemouth at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bournemouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
RicharlisonWatfordWatford · F
8.1

Match Events

27'
Miguel Britos
58'
Steve Cook
58'
Andre Gray
59'
J. Defoe← B. Afobe
60'
M. Pugh← J. Ibe
63'
Nathaniel Chalobah
73'
Richarlison
78'
L. Mousset← R. Fraser
80'
E. Capoue← Richarlison
82'
C. Kabasele← N. Amrabat
86'
E. Capoue
90+1'
B. Watson← N. Chalobah

Possession

55%Bournemouth

Shots

6Bournemouth

Pass accuracy

50%Bournemouth

Statistics

BournemouthWatford
Overview
55%Possession45%
6Total Shots19
8Corners5
6Fouls14
Shots
6Total Shots19
2On Target7
1Off Target7
3Blocked5
4Inside Box13
2Outside Box6
Passing
55%Possession45%
438Total Passes338
338Accurate Passes265
77%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
5Saves2
Discipline
6Fouls14
1Yellow Cards3
1Offsides7

Match Recap: Bournemouth vs Watford

Watford beat Bournemouth 2-0 in Premier League on August 19, 2017.

Goals: Richarlison (73'), E. Capoue (86').

Bournemouth controlled possession (55%) and registered 6 shots to 19.

The match was played at Vitality Stadium in Bournemouth.