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Bournemouth vs Rotherham — Championship 2018

Bournemouth
Bournemouth
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Rotherham
Rotherham
P. Billing 23'
2/17/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 30Vitality Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Bournemouth59%
×Draw23%
Rotherham17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bournemouth
1.75
Rotherham
0.82

Bournemouth creates 113% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 90 away

creates per match

Bournemouth
1.75
Rotherham
0.67

allows per match

Bournemouth
0.98
Rotherham
1.74

finishing

Bournemouth+0.00on par
Rotherham+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bournemouth ↓

Rotherham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Bournemouth or draw
83%
Bournemouth or Rotherham
77%
Draw or Rotherham
41%

Winning margin

Bournemouth wins by 2+
34%
Rotherham wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Bournemouth 1+ goals
83%
Bournemouth 2+ goals
52%
Bournemouth 3+ goals
25%
Rotherham 1+ goals
56%
Rotherham 2+ goals
20%
Rotherham 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Bournemouth (draw refunded)
77%
Rotherham (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bournemouth at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.98 · 48 matches

Rotherham away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.74 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bournemouth attack 1.75 + Rotherham defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.75

Rotherham attack 0.67 + Bournemouth defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Bournemouth scores more
59%
level
23%
Rotherham scores more
17%

Bournemouth at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Bournemouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
J. LermaBournemouthBournemouth · M
7.5

Match Events

23'
P. Billing↳ A. Smith
62'
D. Brooks← A. Groeneveld
63'
Ben Wiles
69'
F. Jozefzoon← D. Barlaser
73'
Wes Harding
77'
Michael Smith
78'
G. Hirst← M. Smith
78'
R. Giles← M. Olosunde
78'
F. Ladapo← L. Wing
87'
B. Pearson← L. Cook
87'
A. MacDonald← W. Harding

Possession

59%Bournemouth

Shots

11Bournemouth

Pass accuracy

56%Bournemouth

Statistics

BournemouthRotherham
Overview
59%Possession41%
11Total Shots7
5Corners4
9Fouls10
Shots
11Total Shots7
6On Target1
1Off Target4
4Blocked2
4Inside Box5
7Outside Box2
Passing
59%Possession41%
394Total Passes264
281Accurate Passes146
71%Pass Accuracy55%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
Discipline
9Fouls10
0Yellow Cards3
3Offsides4

Match Recap: Bournemouth vs Rotherham

Bournemouth beat Rotherham 1-0 in Championship on February 17, 2021.

Goals: P. Billing (23').

Bournemouth controlled possession (59%) and registered 11 shots to 7.

The match was played at Vitality Stadium in Bournemouth, Dorset.