Bournemouth 2–1 Luton: Result & Stats

Bournemouth

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Luton

D. Solanke 31'

P. Billing 17'

L. Kelly 64' (OG)

9/25/2021

Championship · Round 9Vitality Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Bournemouth53%

×Draw25%

Luton22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BournemouthExpected goals in this matchLuton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

0.95

Bournemouth

1.62

Luton

0.95

Bournemouth creates 71% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 114 away

1.75

creates per match

0.92

0.98

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Bournemouth

1.75

Luton

0.92

allows per match

Bournemouth

0.98

Luton

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bournemouth+0.00on par

Luton+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bournemouth ↓

Luton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Bournemouth or draw

78%

Bournemouth or Luton

75%

Draw or Luton

47%

Winning margin

Bournemouth wins by 2+

28%

Luton wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Bournemouth 1+ goals

80%

Bournemouth 2+ goals

48%

Bournemouth 3+ goals

22%

Luton 1+ goals

61%

Luton 2+ goals

25%

Luton 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Bournemouth (draw refunded)

71%

Luton (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bournemouth at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.98 · 48 matches

Luton away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.49 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bournemouth attack 1.75 + Luton defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.62

Luton attack 0.92 + Bournemouth defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Bournemouth scores more

53%

level

25%

Luton scores more

22%

Bournemouth at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Bournemouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

R. Christie

Bournemouth · F

8.3

Match Events

17'

P. Billing↳ R. Christie

31'

D. Solanke↳ R. Christie

46'

A. Bell← G. Osho

49'

Ben Pearson

64'

L. KellyOwn goal

71'

Carlos Gomes← L. Berry

74'

M. Rogers← J. Anthony

75'

C. Jerome← H. Cornick

79'

C. Mepham← R. Christie

90+3'

Jamal Lowe

90'

J. Lowe← D. Solanke

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BournemouthLuton

Overview

60%Possession40%

6Total Shots10

4Corners7

12Fouls9

Shots

6Total Shots10

3On Target3

1Off Target6

2Blocked1

4Inside Box7

2Outside Box3

Passing

60%Possession40%

508Total Passes329

409Accurate Passes233

81%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls9

2Yellow Cards0

0Offsides3