Bournemouth 1–4 Chelsea: Result & Stats

Bournemouth

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Chelsea

T. Elphick 36'

E. Hazard 90+1', 34'

Willian 71'

Pedro 5'

4/23/2016

Premier League · Round 35Vitality Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Bournemouth44%

×Draw25%

Chelsea31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BournemouthExpected goals in this matchChelsea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.28

Bournemouth

1.56

Chelsea

1.28

Bournemouth creates 22% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 36 away

1.65

creates per match

1.45

1.11

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Bournemouth

1.65

Chelsea

1.45

allows per match

Bournemouth

1.11

Chelsea

1.48

-0.27scores less than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Bournemouth-0.27scores less

Chelsea-0.01on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bournemouth ↓

Chelsea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Bournemouth or draw

69%

Bournemouth or Chelsea

75%

Draw or Chelsea

56%

Winning margin

Bournemouth wins by 2+

22%

Chelsea wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Bournemouth 1+ goals

79%

Bournemouth 2+ goals

46%

Bournemouth 3+ goals

21%

Chelsea 1+ goals

72%

Chelsea 2+ goals

37%

Chelsea 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Bournemouth (draw refunded)

58%

Chelsea (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bournemouth at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.11 · 26 matches

Chelsea away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.48 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bournemouth attack 1.65 + Chelsea defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.56

Chelsea attack 1.45 + Bournemouth defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bournemouth scores more

44%

level

25%

Chelsea scores more

31%

Bournemouth at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bournemouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

Fàbregas

Chelsea · M

9.2

Match Events

5'

Pedro↳ Fàbregas

34'

E. Hazard↳ Fàbregas

36'

T. Elphick↳ S. Francis

63'

C. Wilson← J. King

63'

B. Afobe← L. Grabban

71'

Willian↳ Fàbregas

78'

M. Ritchie← J. Stanislas

83'

R. Loftus-Cheek← Willian

89'

Matt Ritchie

90+1'

E. Hazard↳ N. Matić

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BournemouthChelsea

Overview

45%Possession55%

13Total Shots16

10Corners7

0Fouls0

Shots

13Total Shots16

4On Target4

6Off Target4

3Blocked8

7Inside Box10

6Outside Box6

Passing

45%Possession55%

446Total Passes560

364Accurate Passes473

82%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

0Fouls0

1Yellow Cards0

0Offsides3