Bournemouth 2–0 Aston Villa: Result & Stats

Bournemouth

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Aston Villa

K. Moore 80'

J. Lerma 2'

8/6/2022

Premier League · Round 1Vitality Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Bournemouth51%

×Draw24%

Aston Villa25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BournemouthExpected goals in this matchAston Villa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.10

Bournemouth

1.67

Aston Villa

1.10

Bournemouth creates 52% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 31 away

1.66

creates per match

1.13

1.07

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Bournemouth

1.66

Aston Villa

1.13

allows per match

Bournemouth

1.07

Aston Villa

1.67

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

Bournemouth-0.26scores less

Aston Villa+0.03on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bournemouth ↓

Aston Villa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Bournemouth or draw

75%

Bournemouth or Aston Villa

76%

Draw or Aston Villa

49%

Winning margin

Bournemouth wins by 2+

27%

Aston Villa wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Bournemouth 1+ goals

81%

Bournemouth 2+ goals

50%

Bournemouth 3+ goals

23%

Aston Villa 1+ goals

67%

Aston Villa 2+ goals

30%

Aston Villa 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Bournemouth (draw refunded)

67%

Aston Villa (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bournemouth at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.07 · 25 matches

Aston Villa away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.67 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bournemouth attack 1.66 + Aston Villa defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.67

Aston Villa attack 1.13 + Bournemouth defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Bournemouth scores more

51%

level

24%

Aston Villa scores more

25%

Bournemouth at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Bournemouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

C. Mepham

Bournemouth · D

7.9

Match Events

2'

23'

39'

45+2'

45+3'

46'

E. Buendía← J. Ramsey

66'

72'

73'

80'

81'

C. Archer← Philippe Coutinho

82'

Douglas Luiz← B. Kamara

86'

R. Christie← M. Tavernier

90+3'

Douglas Luiz

90+5'

J. Stanislas← D. Solanke

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BournemouthAston

Overview

34%Possession66%

7Total Shots15

5Corners5

18Fouls16

Shots

7Total Shots15

3On Target2

2Off Target7

2Blocked6

6Inside Box4

1Outside Box11

Passing

34%Possession66%

301Total Passes571

211Accurate Passes479

70%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

18Fouls16

3Yellow Cards3

1Offsides4