Bournemouth Sports 1–2 AFC Bournemouth W

Bournemouth Sports

1 – 2

AFC Bournemouth W

11/14/2021

FA Women's Cup · 1st RoundChapel Gate

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Bournemouth Sports26%

×Draw19%

AFC Bournemouth W55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bournemouth SportsExpected goals in this matchAFC Bournemouth W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

2.45

Bournemouth Sports

1.66

AFC Bournemouth W

2.45

AFC Bournemouth W creates 48% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

2.20

creates per match

3.89

1.00

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Bournemouth Sports

2.20

AFC Bournemouth W

3.89

allows per match

Bournemouth Sports

1.00

AFC Bournemouth W

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bournemouth Sports+0.00on par

AFC Bournemouth W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bournemouth Sports ↓

AFC Bournemouth W →

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–37%

1–44%

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Bournemouth Sports or draw

45%

Bournemouth Sports or AFC Bournemouth W

81%

Draw or AFC Bournemouth W

74%

Winning margin

Bournemouth Sports wins by 2+

12%

AFC Bournemouth W wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Bournemouth Sports 1+ goals

81%

Bournemouth Sports 2+ goals

49%

Bournemouth Sports 3+ goals

23%

AFC Bournemouth W 1+ goals

91%

AFC Bournemouth W 2+ goals

70%

AFC Bournemouth W 3+ goals

44%

Draw no bet

Bournemouth Sports (draw refunded)

32%

AFC Bournemouth W (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Bournemouth Sports at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

AFC Bournemouth W away — creates 3.89, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Bournemouth Sports attack 2.20 + AFC Bournemouth W defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.66

AFC Bournemouth W attack 3.89 + Bournemouth Sports defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

Bournemouth Sports scores more

26%

level

19%

AFC Bournemouth W scores more

55%

AFC Bournemouth W at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "AFC Bournemouth W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff