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Bourj vs Tadamon Sour — Premier League 2019

Bourj
Bourj
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Tadamon Sour
Tadamon Sour
4/13/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Championship Round - 6Amin Abdelnour Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Bourj43%
×Draw28%
Tadamon Sour29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bourj
1.28
Tadamon Sour
1.00

Bourj creates 28% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 72 away

creates per match

Bourj
1.13
Tadamon Sour
0.78

allows per match

Bourj
1.23
Tadamon Sour
1.43

finishing

Bourj+0.00on par
Tadamon Sour+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bourj ↓

Tadamon Sour →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bourj or draw
71%
Bourj or Tadamon Sour
72%
Draw or Tadamon Sour
57%

Winning margin

Bourj wins by 2+
19%
Tadamon Sour wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bourj 1+ goals
72%
Bourj 2+ goals
37%
Bourj 3+ goals
14%
Tadamon Sour 1+ goals
63%
Tadamon Sour 2+ goals
26%
Tadamon Sour 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Bourj (draw refunded)
60%
Tadamon Sour (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bourj at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.23 · 64 matches

Tadamon Sour away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.43 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bourj attack 1.13 + Tadamon Sour defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.28

Tadamon Sour attack 0.78 + Bourj defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bourj scores more
43%
level
28%
Tadamon Sour scores more
29%

Bourj at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bourj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bourj vs Tadamon Sour

Bourj beat Tadamon Sour 2-1 in Premier League on April 13, 2022.

The match was played at Amin Abdelnour Stadium in Bhamdoun.