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Bourj vs Sporting Beirut — Premier League 2019

Bourj
Bourj
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sporting Beirut
Sporting Beirut
1/21/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11Amin Abdelnour Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Bourj52%
×Draw25%
Sporting Beirut22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bourj
1.56
Sporting Beirut
0.92

Bourj creates 70% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 10 away

creates per match

Bourj
1.13
Sporting Beirut
0.60

allows per match

Bourj
1.23
Sporting Beirut
2.00

finishing

Bourj+0.00on par
Sporting Beirut+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bourj ↓

Sporting Beirut →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Bourj or draw
78%
Bourj or Sporting Beirut
75%
Draw or Sporting Beirut
48%

Winning margin

Bourj wins by 2+
27%
Sporting Beirut wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Bourj 1+ goals
79%
Bourj 2+ goals
46%
Bourj 3+ goals
21%
Sporting Beirut 1+ goals
60%
Sporting Beirut 2+ goals
23%
Sporting Beirut 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bourj (draw refunded)
70%
Sporting Beirut (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bourj at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.23 · 64 matches

Sporting Beirut away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bourj attack 1.13 + Sporting Beirut defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.56

Sporting Beirut attack 0.60 + Bourj defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Bourj scores more
52%
level
25%
Sporting Beirut scores more
22%

Bourj at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Bourj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Bourj 2–1 Sporting Beirut

Bourj beat Sporting Beirut 2-1 in Premier League on January 21, 2022.

The match was played at Amin Abdelnour Stadium in Bhamdoun.