Bourj 1–1 Al Ahli Nabatiya: Result & Stats

Bourj

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Al Ahli Nabatiya

9/22/2023

Premier League · Round 5Al Safa SC Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Bourj44%

×Draw29%

Al Ahli Nabatiya27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BourjExpected goals in this matchAl Ahli Nabatiya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

0.89

Bourj

1.22

Al Ahli Nabatiya

0.89

Bourj creates 37% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 13 away

1.13

creates per match

0.54

1.23

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Bourj

1.13

Al Ahli Nabatiya

0.54

allows per match

Bourj

1.23

Al Ahli Nabatiya

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bourj+0.00on par

Al Ahli Nabatiya+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bourj ↓

Al Ahli Nabatiya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Bourj or draw

73%

Bourj or Al Ahli Nabatiya

71%

Draw or Al Ahli Nabatiya

56%

Winning margin

Bourj wins by 2+

19%

Al Ahli Nabatiya wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Bourj 1+ goals

70%

Bourj 2+ goals

34%

Bourj 3+ goals

12%

Al Ahli Nabatiya 1+ goals

59%

Al Ahli Nabatiya 2+ goals

22%

Al Ahli Nabatiya 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Bourj (draw refunded)

62%

Al Ahli Nabatiya (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bourj at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.23 · 64 matches

Al Ahli Nabatiya away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bourj attack 1.13 + Al Ahli Nabatiya defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.22

Al Ahli Nabatiya attack 0.54 + Bourj defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bourj scores more

44%

level

29%

Al Ahli Nabatiya scores more

27%

Bourj at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bourj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff