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Bourj vs Al Ahed — Premier League 2019

Bourj
Bourj
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Al Ahed
Al Ahed
4/5/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Championship Round - 7Fouad Shehab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Bourj23%
×Draw25%
Al Ahed51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bourj
0.98
Al Ahed
1.58

Al Ahed creates 61% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 76 away

creates per match

Bourj
1.13
Al Ahed
1.93

allows per match

Bourj
1.23
Al Ahed
0.84

finishing

Bourj+0.00on par
Al Ahed+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bourj ↓

Al Ahed →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Bourj or draw
49%
Bourj or Al Ahed
75%
Draw or Al Ahed
77%

Winning margin

Bourj wins by 2+
8%
Al Ahed wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Bourj 1+ goals
62%
Bourj 2+ goals
26%
Bourj 3+ goals
8%
Al Ahed 1+ goals
79%
Al Ahed 2+ goals
47%
Al Ahed 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Bourj (draw refunded)
31%
Al Ahed (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bourj at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.23 · 64 matches

Al Ahed away — creates 1.93, concedes 0.84 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bourj attack 1.13 + Al Ahed defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.98

Al Ahed attack 1.93 + Bourj defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Bourj scores more
23%
level
25%
Al Ahed scores more
51%

Al Ahed at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Al Ahed will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bourj vs Al Ahed

Al Ahed beat Bourj 1-0 in Premier League on April 5, 2024.

The match was played at Fouad Shehab Stadium in Jounie.