Bourg-en-bresse 01 0–3 Saint Etienne

Bourg-en-bresse 01

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Saint Etienne

11/18/2023

Coupe de France · 7th RoundStade Marcel-Verchère

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Bourg-en-bresse 016%

×Draw12%

Saint Etienne82%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bourg-en-bresse 01Expected goals in this matchSaint Etienne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.69

2.94

Bourg-en-bresse 01

0.69

Saint Etienne

2.94

Saint Etienne creates 326% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 13 away

0.60

creates per match

2.08

3.80

allows per match

0.77

creates per match

Bourg-en-bresse 01

0.60

Saint Etienne

2.08

allows per match

Bourg-en-bresse 01

3.80

Saint Etienne

0.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bourg-en-bresse 01+0.00on par

Saint Etienne+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bourg-en-bresse 01 ↓

Saint Etienne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–18%

0–212%

0–312%

0–49%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–12%

2–23%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–00%

3–10%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Bourg-en-bresse 01 or draw

18%

Bourg-en-bresse 01 or Saint Etienne

88%

Draw or Saint Etienne

94%

Winning margin

Bourg-en-bresse 01 wins by 2+

2%

Saint Etienne wins by 2+

63%

Team goals

Bourg-en-bresse 01 1+ goals

50%

Bourg-en-bresse 01 2+ goals

15%

Bourg-en-bresse 01 3+ goals

3%

Saint Etienne 1+ goals

95%

Saint Etienne 2+ goals

79%

Saint Etienne 3+ goals

55%

Draw no bet

Bourg-en-bresse 01 (draw refunded)

7%

Saint Etienne (draw refunded)

93%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bourg-en-bresse 01 at home — creates 0.60, concedes 3.80 · 5 matches

Saint Etienne away — creates 2.08, concedes 0.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bourg-en-bresse 01 attack 0.60 + Saint Etienne defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.69

Saint Etienne attack 2.08 + Bourg-en-bresse 01 defence 3.80 → ÷2 → 2.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Bourg-en-bresse 01 scores more

6%

level

12%

Saint Etienne scores more

82%

Saint Etienne at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Saint Etienne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bourg-en-bresse 01 vs Saint Etienne

Saint Etienne beat Bourg-en-bresse 01 3-0 in Coupe de France on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Marcel-Verchère in Bourg-en-Bresse.

Bourg-en-bresse 01 vs Saint Etienne — Coupe de France 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Bourg-en-bresse 01 vs Saint Etienne