Boulogne 0–0 Valenciennes: Result & Stats

Boulogne

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Valenciennes

11/1/2024

League #63 · Round 11Stade de la Libération

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Boulogne31%

×Draw32%

Valenciennes37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BoulogneExpected goals in this matchValenciennes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.89

0.99

Boulogne

0.89

Valenciennes

0.99

Valenciennes creates 11% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 5 away

1.18

creates per match

0.80

1.18

allows per match

0.60

creates per match

Boulogne

1.18

Valenciennes

0.80

allows per match

Boulogne

1.18

Valenciennes

0.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Boulogne+0.00on par

Valenciennes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boulogne ↓

Valenciennes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–115%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Boulogne or draw

63%

Boulogne or Valenciennes

68%

Draw or Valenciennes

69%

Winning margin

Boulogne wins by 2+

11%

Valenciennes wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Boulogne 1+ goals

59%

Boulogne 2+ goals

22%

Boulogne 3+ goals

6%

Valenciennes 1+ goals

63%

Valenciennes 2+ goals

26%

Valenciennes 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Boulogne (draw refunded)

46%

Valenciennes (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boulogne at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.18 · 33 matches

Valenciennes away — creates 0.80, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boulogne attack 1.18 + Valenciennes defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.89

Valenciennes attack 0.80 + Boulogne defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Boulogne scores more

31%

level

32%

Valenciennes scores more

37%

Valenciennes at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Valenciennes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

16'

19'

46'

46'

T. Lienard← D. Traoré

65'

H. Touré← J. Bultel

68'

J. Boyer

72'

M. Oyewusi

76'

J. Moursou← A. Boutoutaou

79'

A. Baala← T. Averlant

82'

L. Buades

82'

C. Fatou← A. Hbouch

83'

L. Stoltz← T. Rambaud

Boulogne

Valenciennes

30

Michel

19

Buadés

14

Sissoko

5

▼

29

34

22

6

17

▼

Boutoutao

8

▼

27

16

23

12

5

15

11

▼

Averlant

8

Vercruyss

21

▼

Hbouch

14

▼

Bultel

9

▼

Rambaud

24

Epailly

Manager: F. Dagneaux

65'▲H. Touré←▼J. Bultel

79'▲A. Baala←▼T. Averlant

82'▲C. Fatou←▼A. Hbouch

83'▲L. Stoltz←▼T. Rambaud

Boulogne substitutes

20Touré27Baala17Fatou18Stoltz40Delins

Manager: A. Kantari

46'▲C. Antoine←▼J. Poha

46'▲T. Lienard←▼D. Traoré

76'▲J. Moursou←▼A. Boutoutaou

Valenciennes substitutes

7Antoine33Lienard13Moursou11Lilepo10Flamarion