Boulogne 3–1 Grenoble: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Boulogne

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Grenoble

V. Burlet 81'

A. Platret 80'

C. Fatou 69' (pen)

J. Benet 35' (pen)

11/21/2025

Ligue 2 · Round 15Stade de la Libération

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Boulogne34%

×Draw28%

Grenoble38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BoulogneExpected goals in this matchGrenoble

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.23

Boulogne

1.16

Grenoble

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 139 away

1.00

creates per match

0.94

1.52

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Boulogne

1.00

Grenoble

0.94

allows per match

Boulogne

1.52

Grenoble

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Boulogne+0.00on par

Grenoble+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boulogne ↓

Grenoble →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Boulogne or draw

62%

Boulogne or Grenoble

72%

Draw or Grenoble

66%

Winning margin

Boulogne wins by 2+

14%

Grenoble wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Boulogne 1+ goals

69%

Boulogne 2+ goals

32%

Boulogne 3+ goals

11%

Grenoble 1+ goals

71%

Grenoble 2+ goals

35%

Grenoble 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Boulogne (draw refunded)

48%

Grenoble (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boulogne at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.52 · 29 matches

Grenoble away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.32 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boulogne attack 1.00 + Grenoble defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.16

Grenoble attack 0.94 + Boulogne defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Boulogne scores more

34%

level

28%

Grenoble scores more

38%

Grenoble at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Grenoble will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

I. Kone

Boulogne · G

8.2

Match Events

35'

J. BenetPenalty

46'

S. Gourville← A. Pinot

57'

Gaëtan Paquiez

63'

Y. Diaby← N. Zahui

69'

C. FatouPenalty

71'

A. El Farissi← N. Fatar

76'

M. Bangre← S. Diba

77'

M. Djitte← N. Elphege

80'

A. Platret↳ A. El Farissi

81'

81'

81'

85'

86'

86'

87'

E. Kouassi← A. Platret

89'

90+5'

90+5'

90'

90+5'

90+4'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BoulogneGrenoble

Overview

51%Possession49%

20Total Shots13

6Corners6

13Fouls14

Shots

20Total Shots13

8On Target7

4Off Target4

8Blocked2

11Inside Box7

9Outside Box6

Passing

51%Possession49%

389Total Passes382

290Accurate Passes295

75%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

5Saves5

Discipline

13Fouls14

4Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

2Offsides3

Match Recap: Boulogne vs Grenoble

Boulogne beat Grenoble 3-1 in Ligue 2 on November 21, 2025.

Goals: J. Benet (35' pen), C. Fatou (69' pen), A. Platret (80'), V. Burlet (81').

Boulogne controlled possession (51%) and registered 20 shots to 13.

The match was played at Stade de la Libération in Boulogne-sur-Mer.

Boulogne vs Grenoble — Ligue 2 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Boulogne vs Grenoble