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Boulder County United vs Park City Red Wolves — USL League Two 2018

Boulder County United
Boulder County United
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Park City Red Wolves
Park City Red Wolves
6/22/2023USL League TwoUSL League Two · Western Conference - 9Peak to Peak Charter School Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Boulder County United32%
×Draw22%
Park City Red Wolves46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boulder County United
1.60
Park City Red Wolves
1.93

Park City Red Wolves creates 21% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 22 away

creates per match

Boulder County United
1.60
Park City Red Wolves
1.86

allows per match

Boulder County United
2.00
Park City Red Wolves
1.59

finishing

Boulder County United+0.00on par
Park City Red Wolves+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boulder County United ↓

Park City Red Wolves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Boulder County United or draw
54%
Boulder County United or Park City Red Wolves
78%
Draw or Park City Red Wolves
68%

Winning margin

Boulder County United wins by 2+
16%
Park City Red Wolves wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Boulder County United 1+ goals
80%
Boulder County United 2+ goals
47%
Boulder County United 3+ goals
22%
Park City Red Wolves 1+ goals
85%
Park City Red Wolves 2+ goals
57%
Park City Red Wolves 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Boulder County United (draw refunded)
42%
Park City Red Wolves (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boulder County United at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Park City Red Wolves away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.59 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boulder County United attack 1.60 + Park City Red Wolves defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.60

Park City Red Wolves attack 1.86 + Boulder County United defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Boulder County United scores more
32%
level
22%
Park City Red Wolves scores more
46%

Park City Red Wolves at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Park City Red Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Boulder County United vs Park City Red Wolves

Park City Red Wolves beat Boulder County United 4-1 in USL League Two on June 22, 2023.

The match was played at Peak to Peak Charter School Field in Lafayette, Colorado.