Boulder County United 2–3 New Mexico United II

Boulder County United

FT

2 – 3

New Mexico United II

6/19/2023

USL League Two · Western Conference - 9Peak to Peak Charter School Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Boulder County United33%

×Draw22%

New Mexico United II45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Boulder County UnitedExpected goals in this matchNew Mexico United II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.86

Boulder County United

1.58

New Mexico United II

1.86

New Mexico United II creates 18% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 18 away

1.60

creates per match

1.72

2.00

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Boulder County United

1.60

New Mexico United II

1.72

allows per match

Boulder County United

2.00

New Mexico United II

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Boulder County United+0.00on par

New Mexico United II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boulder County United ↓

New Mexico United II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Boulder County United or draw

55%

Boulder County United or New Mexico United II

78%

Draw or New Mexico United II

67%

Winning margin

Boulder County United wins by 2+

16%

New Mexico United II wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Boulder County United 1+ goals

79%

Boulder County United 2+ goals

47%

Boulder County United 3+ goals

21%

New Mexico United II 1+ goals

84%

New Mexico United II 2+ goals

55%

New Mexico United II 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Boulder County United (draw refunded)

43%

New Mexico United II (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boulder County United at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

New Mexico United II away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boulder County United attack 1.60 + New Mexico United II defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.58

New Mexico United II attack 1.72 + Boulder County United defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Boulder County United scores more

33%

level

22%

New Mexico United II scores more

45%

New Mexico United II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "New Mexico United II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff