Boulder County United 2–1 Flatirons Rush

Boulder County United

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Flatirons Rush

6/5/2023

USL League Two · Western Conference - 6Peak to Peak Charter School Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Boulder County United31%

×Draw22%

Flatirons Rush47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Boulder County UnitedExpected goals in this matchFlatirons Rush

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.95

Boulder County United

1.56

Flatirons Rush

1.95

Flatirons Rush creates 25% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 30 away

1.60

creates per match

1.90

2.00

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Boulder County United

1.60

Flatirons Rush

1.90

allows per match

Boulder County United

2.00

Flatirons Rush

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Boulder County United+0.00on par

Flatirons Rush+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boulder County United ↓

Flatirons Rush →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Boulder County United or draw

53%

Boulder County United or Flatirons Rush

78%

Draw or Flatirons Rush

69%

Winning margin

Boulder County United wins by 2+

15%

Flatirons Rush wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Boulder County United 1+ goals

79%

Boulder County United 2+ goals

46%

Boulder County United 3+ goals

21%

Flatirons Rush 1+ goals

86%

Flatirons Rush 2+ goals

58%

Flatirons Rush 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Boulder County United (draw refunded)

40%

Flatirons Rush (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boulder County United at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Flatirons Rush away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.53 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boulder County United attack 1.60 + Flatirons Rush defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.56

Flatirons Rush attack 1.90 + Boulder County United defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Boulder County United scores more

31%

level

22%

Flatirons Rush scores more

47%

Flatirons Rush at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Flatirons Rush will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff