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Bougouni vs Yeelen Olympique — Première Division 2019

Bougouni
Bougouni
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Yeelen Olympique
Yeelen Olympique
6/8/2023Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 23Stade Omnisports de Bougouni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Bougouni38%
×Draw29%
Yeelen Olympique34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bougouni
1.17
Yeelen Olympique
1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 77 home / 53 away

creates per match

Bougouni
1.01
Yeelen Olympique
1.17

allows per match

Bougouni
1.01
Yeelen Olympique
1.32

finishing

Bougouni+0.00on par
Yeelen Olympique+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bougouni ↓

Yeelen Olympique →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bougouni or draw
66%
Bougouni or Yeelen Olympique
71%
Draw or Yeelen Olympique
62%

Winning margin

Bougouni wins by 2+
16%
Yeelen Olympique wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bougouni 1+ goals
69%
Bougouni 2+ goals
33%
Bougouni 3+ goals
11%
Yeelen Olympique 1+ goals
66%
Yeelen Olympique 2+ goals
30%
Yeelen Olympique 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bougouni (draw refunded)
53%
Yeelen Olympique (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bougouni at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.01 · 77 matches

Yeelen Olympique away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.32 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bougouni attack 1.01 + Yeelen Olympique defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.17

Yeelen Olympique attack 1.17 + Bougouni defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bougouni scores more
38%
level
29%
Yeelen Olympique scores more
34%

Bougouni at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bougouni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bougouni vs Yeelen Olympique

Bougouni beat Yeelen Olympique 3-0 in Première Division on June 8, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Omnisports de Bougouni in Bougouni.