Bougouni 3–0 Douannes de Sikasso: Result & Stats

Bougouni

FT

3 – 0

Douannes de Sikasso

4/22/2021

Première Division · Round 13Stade Omnisports de Bougouni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Bougouni48%

×Draw29%

Douannes de Sikasso23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BougouniExpected goals in this matchDouannes de Sikasso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.78

Bougouni

1.27

Douannes de Sikasso

0.78

Bougouni creates 63% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 26 away

1.01

creates per match

0.58

0.99

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Bougouni

1.01

Douannes de Sikasso

0.58

allows per match

Bougouni

0.99

Douannes de Sikasso

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bougouni+0.00on par

Douannes de Sikasso+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bougouni ↓

Douannes de Sikasso →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Bougouni or draw

77%

Bougouni or Douannes de Sikasso

71%

Draw or Douannes de Sikasso

52%

Winning margin

Bougouni wins by 2+

22%

Douannes de Sikasso wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Bougouni 1+ goals

72%

Bougouni 2+ goals

36%

Bougouni 3+ goals

14%

Douannes de Sikasso 1+ goals

54%

Douannes de Sikasso 2+ goals

18%

Douannes de Sikasso 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Bougouni (draw refunded)

68%

Douannes de Sikasso (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bougouni at home — creates 1.01, concedes 0.99 · 80 matches

Douannes de Sikasso away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.54 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bougouni attack 1.01 + Douannes de Sikasso defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.27

Douannes de Sikasso attack 0.58 + Bougouni defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Bougouni scores more

48%

level

29%

Douannes de Sikasso scores more

23%

Bougouni at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Bougouni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff