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Bouenguidi vs TP Mazembe — CAF Champions League 2019

Bouenguidi
Bouenguidi
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
TP Mazembe
TP Mazembe
12/23/2020CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · 1st RoundStade Augustin Monédan de Sibang

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bouenguidi44%
×Draw31%
TP Mazembe25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bouenguidi
1.14
TP Mazembe
0.78

Bouenguidi creates 46% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 21 away

creates per match

Bouenguidi
1.33
TP Mazembe
0.57

allows per match

Bouenguidi
1.00
TP Mazembe
0.95

finishing

Bouenguidi+0.00on par
TP Mazembe+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bouenguidi ↓

TP Mazembe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Bouenguidi or draw
75%
Bouenguidi or TP Mazembe
69%
Draw or TP Mazembe
56%

Winning margin

Bouenguidi wins by 2+
19%
TP Mazembe wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Bouenguidi 1+ goals
68%
Bouenguidi 2+ goals
32%
Bouenguidi 3+ goals
11%
TP Mazembe 1+ goals
54%
TP Mazembe 2+ goals
18%
TP Mazembe 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Bouenguidi (draw refunded)
64%
TP Mazembe (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bouenguidi at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

TP Mazembe away — creates 0.57, concedes 0.95 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bouenguidi attack 1.33 + TP Mazembe defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.14

TP Mazembe attack 0.57 + Bouenguidi defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bouenguidi scores more
44%
level
31%
TP Mazembe scores more
25%

Bouenguidi at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bouenguidi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CAF Champions League: Bouenguidi 1–2 TP Mazembe

TP Mazembe beat Bouenguidi 2-1 in CAF Champions League on December 23, 2020.

The match was played at Stade Augustin Monédan de Sibang in Libreville.