Bouenguidi 0–0 Stade Mandji: Result & Stats

Bouenguidi

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Stade Mandji

4/5/2026

Championnat D1 · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Bouenguidi29%

×Draw34%

Stade Mandji38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BouenguidiExpected goals in this matchStade Mandji

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.78

0.95

Bouenguidi

0.78

Stade Mandji

0.95

Stade Mandji creates 22% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 31 away

0.73

creates per match

0.94

0.97

allows per match

0.84

creates per match

Bouenguidi

0.73

Stade Mandji

0.94

allows per match

Bouenguidi

0.97

Stade Mandji

0.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bouenguidi+0.00on par

Stade Mandji+0.00on par

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bouenguidi ↓

Stade Mandji →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–117%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–05%

2–15%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

52%48%2.5

25%75%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Bouenguidi or draw

62%

Bouenguidi or Stade Mandji

66%

Draw or Stade Mandji

71%

Winning margin

Bouenguidi wins by 2+

9%

Stade Mandji wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Bouenguidi 1+ goals

54%

Bouenguidi 2+ goals

18%

Bouenguidi 3+ goals

4%

Stade Mandji 1+ goals

61%

Stade Mandji 2+ goals

25%

Stade Mandji 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Bouenguidi (draw refunded)

43%

Stade Mandji (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bouenguidi at home — creates 0.73, concedes 0.97 · 30 matches

Stade Mandji away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.84 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bouenguidi attack 0.73 + Stade Mandji defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.78

Stade Mandji attack 0.94 + Bouenguidi defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bouenguidi scores more

29%

level

34%

Stade Mandji scores more

38%

Stade Mandji at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Stade Mandji will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff