Bouenguidi 0–3 FC 105: Result & Stats

Bouenguidi

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

FC 105

5/24/2025

Championnat D1 · Round 25Stade TATA MIGOLET de Koulamoutou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Bouenguidi27%

×Draw32%

FC 10541%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BouenguidiExpected goals in this matchFC 105

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.80

1.06

Bouenguidi

0.80

FC 105

1.06

FC 105 creates 32% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 32 away

0.73

creates per match

1.16

0.97

allows per match

0.88

creates per match

Bouenguidi

0.73

FC 105

1.16

allows per match

Bouenguidi

0.97

FC 105

0.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bouenguidi+0.00on par

FC 105+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bouenguidi ↓

FC 105 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–117%

0–29%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Bouenguidi or draw

59%

Bouenguidi or FC 105

68%

Draw or FC 105

73%

Winning margin

Bouenguidi wins by 2+

9%

FC 105 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Bouenguidi 1+ goals

55%

Bouenguidi 2+ goals

19%

Bouenguidi 3+ goals

5%

FC 105 1+ goals

65%

FC 105 2+ goals

29%

FC 105 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Bouenguidi (draw refunded)

40%

FC 105 (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bouenguidi at home — creates 0.73, concedes 0.97 · 30 matches

FC 105 away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.88 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bouenguidi attack 0.73 + FC 105 defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.80

FC 105 attack 1.16 + Bouenguidi defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bouenguidi scores more

27%

level

32%

FC 105 scores more

41%

FC 105 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FC 105 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff