Bouenguidi 0–1 Cercle Mbéri: Result & Stats

Bouenguidi

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Cercle Mbéri

5/10/2025

Championnat D1 · Round 23Stade TATA MIGOLET de Koulamoutou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Bouenguidi23%

×Draw31%

Cercle Mbéri46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BouenguidiExpected goals in this matchCercle Mbéri

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.71

1.14

Bouenguidi

0.71

Cercle Mbéri

1.14

Cercle Mbéri creates 61% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 33 away

0.73

creates per match

1.30

0.97

allows per match

0.70

creates per match

Bouenguidi

0.73

Cercle Mbéri

1.30

allows per match

Bouenguidi

0.97

Cercle Mbéri

0.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bouenguidi+0.00on par

Cercle Mbéri+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bouenguidi ↓

Cercle Mbéri →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–118%

0–210%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Bouenguidi or draw

54%

Bouenguidi or Cercle Mbéri

69%

Draw or Cercle Mbéri

77%

Winning margin

Bouenguidi wins by 2+

7%

Cercle Mbéri wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Bouenguidi 1+ goals

51%

Bouenguidi 2+ goals

16%

Bouenguidi 3+ goals

4%

Cercle Mbéri 1+ goals

68%

Cercle Mbéri 2+ goals

32%

Cercle Mbéri 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Bouenguidi (draw refunded)

33%

Cercle Mbéri (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bouenguidi at home — creates 0.73, concedes 0.97 · 30 matches

Cercle Mbéri away — creates 1.30, concedes 0.70 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bouenguidi attack 0.73 + Cercle Mbéri defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.71

Cercle Mbéri attack 1.30 + Bouenguidi defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bouenguidi scores more

23%

level

31%

Cercle Mbéri scores more

46%

Cercle Mbéri at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Cercle Mbéri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff