Bouchamma 1–2 Stade Gabesien: Result & Stats

Bouchamma

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Stade Gabesien

3/29/2026

Ligue 2 · Round 20

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Bouchamma53%

×Draw26%

Stade Gabesien21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BouchammaExpected goals in this matchStade Gabesien

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

0.82

Bouchamma

1.49

Stade Gabesien

0.82

Bouchamma creates 82% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 60 away

1.85

creates per match

0.73

0.92

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Bouchamma

1.85

Stade Gabesien

0.73

allows per match

Bouchamma

0.92

Stade Gabesien

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bouchamma+0.00on par

Stade Gabesien+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bouchamma ↓

Stade Gabesien →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Bouchamma or draw

79%

Bouchamma or Stade Gabesien

74%

Draw or Stade Gabesien

47%

Winning margin

Bouchamma wins by 2+

27%

Stade Gabesien wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Bouchamma 1+ goals

77%

Bouchamma 2+ goals

44%

Bouchamma 3+ goals

19%

Stade Gabesien 1+ goals

56%

Stade Gabesien 2+ goals

20%

Stade Gabesien 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Bouchamma (draw refunded)

72%

Stade Gabesien (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bouchamma at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

Stade Gabesien away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.12 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bouchamma attack 1.85 + Stade Gabesien defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.49

Stade Gabesien attack 0.73 + Bouchamma defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Bouchamma scores more

53%

level

26%

Stade Gabesien scores more

21%

Bouchamma at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Bouchamma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff