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Bouchamma vs Sfax Railways — Cup 2019

Bouchamma
Bouchamma
FT
4 – 1
Sfax Railways
Sfax Railways
2/25/2024CupCup · 3rd RoundStade Bouchemma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bouchamma49%
×Draw24%
Sfax Railways27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bouchamma
1.73
Sfax Railways
1.23

Bouchamma creates 41% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Bouchamma
1.67
Sfax Railways
0.80

allows per match

Bouchamma
1.67
Sfax Railways
1.80

finishing

Bouchamma+0.00on par
Sfax Railways+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bouchamma ↓

Sfax Railways →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Bouchamma or draw
73%
Bouchamma or Sfax Railways
76%
Draw or Sfax Railways
51%

Winning margin

Bouchamma wins by 2+
26%
Sfax Railways wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bouchamma 1+ goals
82%
Bouchamma 2+ goals
52%
Bouchamma 3+ goals
25%
Sfax Railways 1+ goals
71%
Sfax Railways 2+ goals
35%
Sfax Railways 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Bouchamma (draw refunded)
64%
Sfax Railways (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bouchamma at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Sfax Railways away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bouchamma attack 1.67 + Sfax Railways defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.73

Sfax Railways attack 0.80 + Bouchamma defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Bouchamma scores more
49%
level
24%
Sfax Railways scores more
27%

Bouchamma at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Bouchamma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Bouchamma 4–1 Sfax Railways

Bouchamma beat Sfax Railways 4-1 in Cup on February 25, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Bouchemma in Gabès.