Bouchamma 1–4 Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

Bouchamma

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

2/21/2026

Ligue 2 · Round 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Bouchamma47%

×Draw26%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BouchammaExpected goals in this matchProgrès Sakiet Eddaïer

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.09

Bouchamma

1.52

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

1.09

Bouchamma creates 39% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 27 away

1.85

creates per match

1.26

0.92

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Bouchamma

1.85

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

1.26

allows per match

Bouchamma

0.92

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bouchamma+0.00on par

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bouchamma ↓

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Bouchamma or draw

73%

Bouchamma or Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

74%

Draw or Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

53%

Winning margin

Bouchamma wins by 2+

24%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Bouchamma 1+ goals

78%

Bouchamma 2+ goals

45%

Bouchamma 3+ goals

20%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 1+ goals

66%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 2+ goals

30%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Bouchamma (draw refunded)

63%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bouchamma at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bouchamma attack 1.85 + Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.52

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer attack 1.26 + Bouchamma defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bouchamma scores more

47%

level

26%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer scores more

27%

Bouchamma at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bouchamma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff