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Bouchamma vs Ksour Essef — Ligue 2 2020

Bouchamma
Bouchamma
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Ksour Essef
Ksour Essef
4/11/2026Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 22

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Bouchamma59%
×Draw24%
Ksour Essef17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bouchamma
1.66
Ksour Essef
0.77

Bouchamma creates 116% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Bouchamma
1.85
Ksour Essef
0.62

allows per match

Bouchamma
0.92
Ksour Essef
1.46

finishing

Bouchamma+0.00on par
Ksour Essef+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bouchamma ↓

Ksour Essef →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bouchamma or draw
83%
Bouchamma or Ksour Essef
76%
Draw or Ksour Essef
41%

Winning margin

Bouchamma wins by 2+
32%
Ksour Essef wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Bouchamma 1+ goals
81%
Bouchamma 2+ goals
49%
Bouchamma 3+ goals
23%
Ksour Essef 1+ goals
54%
Ksour Essef 2+ goals
18%
Ksour Essef 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Bouchamma (draw refunded)
77%
Ksour Essef (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bouchamma at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

Ksour Essef away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bouchamma attack 1.85 + Ksour Essef defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.66

Ksour Essef attack 0.62 + Bouchamma defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Bouchamma scores more
59%
level
24%
Ksour Essef scores more
17%

Bouchamma at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Bouchamma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Bouchamma 4–1 Ksour Essef

Bouchamma beat Ksour Essef 4-1 in Ligue 2 on April 11, 2026.