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Bouchamma vs Kalaâ Sport — Ligue 2 2020

Bouchamma
Bouchamma
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kalaâ Sport
Kalaâ Sport
1/31/2026Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Bouchamma58%
×Draw24%
Kalaâ Sport18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bouchamma
1.68
Kalaâ Sport
0.81

Bouchamma creates 107% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 61 away

creates per match

Bouchamma
1.85
Kalaâ Sport
0.70

allows per match

Bouchamma
0.92
Kalaâ Sport
1.51

finishing

Bouchamma+0.00on par
Kalaâ Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bouchamma ↓

Kalaâ Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Bouchamma or draw
82%
Bouchamma or Kalaâ Sport
76%
Draw or Kalaâ Sport
42%

Winning margin

Bouchamma wins by 2+
32%
Kalaâ Sport wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Bouchamma 1+ goals
81%
Bouchamma 2+ goals
50%
Bouchamma 3+ goals
24%
Kalaâ Sport 1+ goals
56%
Kalaâ Sport 2+ goals
19%
Kalaâ Sport 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Bouchamma (draw refunded)
76%
Kalaâ Sport (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bouchamma at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

Kalaâ Sport away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.51 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bouchamma attack 1.85 + Kalaâ Sport defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.68

Kalaâ Sport attack 0.70 + Bouchamma defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Bouchamma scores more
58%
level
24%
Kalaâ Sport scores more
18%

Bouchamma at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Bouchamma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bouchamma vs Kalaâ Sport

Bouchamma beat Kalaâ Sport 1-0 in Ligue 2 on January 31, 2026.