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Bouchamma vs EGS Gafsa — Ligue 2 2020

Bouchamma
Bouchamma
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
EGS Gafsa
EGS Gafsa
1/17/2026Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Bouchamma53%
×Draw25%
EGS Gafsa22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bouchamma
1.56
EGS Gafsa
0.91

Bouchamma creates 71% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 36 away

creates per match

Bouchamma
1.85
EGS Gafsa
0.89

allows per match

Bouchamma
0.92
EGS Gafsa
1.28

finishing

Bouchamma+0.00on par
EGS Gafsa+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bouchamma ↓

EGS Gafsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bouchamma or draw
78%
Bouchamma or EGS Gafsa
75%
Draw or EGS Gafsa
47%

Winning margin

Bouchamma wins by 2+
27%
EGS Gafsa wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Bouchamma 1+ goals
79%
Bouchamma 2+ goals
46%
Bouchamma 3+ goals
21%
EGS Gafsa 1+ goals
60%
EGS Gafsa 2+ goals
23%
EGS Gafsa 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Bouchamma (draw refunded)
70%
EGS Gafsa (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bouchamma at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

EGS Gafsa away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.28 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bouchamma attack 1.85 + EGS Gafsa defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.56

EGS Gafsa attack 0.89 + Bouchamma defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Bouchamma scores more
53%
level
25%
EGS Gafsa scores more
22%

Bouchamma at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Bouchamma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Bouchamma 1–0 EGS Gafsa

Bouchamma beat EGS Gafsa 1-0 in Ligue 2 on January 17, 2026.