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Bouaké vs Stade d'Abidjan — Ligue 1 2019

Bouaké
Bouaké
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Stade d'Abidjan
Stade d'Abidjan
4/13/2026Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 24

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Bouaké25%
×Draw29%
Stade d'Abidjan46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bouaké
0.84
Stade d'Abidjan
1.25

Stade d'Abidjan creates 49% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 59 away

creates per match

Bouaké
0.80
Stade d'Abidjan
1.39

allows per match

Bouaké
1.11
Stade d'Abidjan
0.88

finishing

Bouaké+0.00on par
Stade d'Abidjan+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bouaké ↓

Stade d'Abidjan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–115%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Bouaké or draw
54%
Bouaké or Stade d'Abidjan
71%
Draw or Stade d'Abidjan
75%

Winning margin

Bouaké wins by 2+
8%
Stade d'Abidjan wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Bouaké 1+ goals
57%
Bouaké 2+ goals
21%
Bouaké 3+ goals
5%
Stade d'Abidjan 1+ goals
71%
Stade d'Abidjan 2+ goals
36%
Stade d'Abidjan 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Bouaké (draw refunded)
35%
Stade d'Abidjan (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bouaké at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.11 · 89 matches

Stade d'Abidjan away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.88 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bouaké attack 0.80 + Stade d'Abidjan defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.84

Stade d'Abidjan attack 1.39 + Bouaké defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bouaké scores more
25%
level
29%
Stade d'Abidjan scores more
46%

Stade d'Abidjan at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Stade d'Abidjan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bouaké vs Stade d'Abidjan

Stade d'Abidjan beat Bouaké 1-0 in Ligue 1 on April 13, 2026.