Bouaké 1–1 Sporting Gagnoa: Result & Stats

Bouaké

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sporting Gagnoa

5/26/2024

Ligue 1 · Round 29Stade de Bouaké

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Bouaké32%

×Draw31%

Sporting Gagnoa37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BouakéExpected goals in this matchSporting Gagnoa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

1.02

Bouaké

0.94

Sporting Gagnoa

1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 89 home / 59 away

0.80

creates per match

0.92

1.11

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Bouaké

0.80

Sporting Gagnoa

0.92

allows per match

Bouaké

1.11

Sporting Gagnoa

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bouaké+0.00on par

Sporting Gagnoa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bouaké ↓

Sporting Gagnoa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Bouaké or draw

63%

Bouaké or Sporting Gagnoa

69%

Draw or Sporting Gagnoa

68%

Winning margin

Bouaké wins by 2+

12%

Sporting Gagnoa wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Bouaké 1+ goals

61%

Bouaké 2+ goals

24%

Bouaké 3+ goals

7%

Sporting Gagnoa 1+ goals

64%

Sporting Gagnoa 2+ goals

27%

Sporting Gagnoa 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Bouaké (draw refunded)

47%

Sporting Gagnoa (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bouaké at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.11 · 89 matches

Sporting Gagnoa away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.07 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bouaké attack 0.80 + Sporting Gagnoa defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.94

Sporting Gagnoa attack 0.92 + Bouaké defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Bouaké scores more

32%

level

31%

Sporting Gagnoa scores more

37%

Sporting Gagnoa at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sporting Gagnoa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff