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Bouaké vs Racing d'Abidjan — Ligue 1 2019

Bouaké
Bouaké
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Racing d'Abidjan
Racing d'Abidjan
2/8/2026Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Bouaké30%
×Draw30%
Racing d'Abidjan40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bouaké
0.94
Racing d'Abidjan
1.15

Racing d'Abidjan creates 22% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 89 away

creates per match

Bouaké
0.80
Racing d'Abidjan
1.18

allows per match

Bouaké
1.11
Racing d'Abidjan
1.08

finishing

Bouaké+0.00on par
Racing d'Abidjan+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bouaké ↓

Racing d'Abidjan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Bouaké or draw
60%
Bouaké or Racing d'Abidjan
70%
Draw or Racing d'Abidjan
70%

Winning margin

Bouaké wins by 2+
11%
Racing d'Abidjan wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Bouaké 1+ goals
61%
Bouaké 2+ goals
24%
Bouaké 3+ goals
7%
Racing d'Abidjan 1+ goals
68%
Racing d'Abidjan 2+ goals
32%
Racing d'Abidjan 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Bouaké (draw refunded)
42%
Racing d'Abidjan (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bouaké at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.11 · 89 matches

Racing d'Abidjan away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.08 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bouaké attack 0.80 + Racing d'Abidjan defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.94

Racing d'Abidjan attack 1.18 + Bouaké defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bouaké scores more
30%
level
30%
Racing d'Abidjan scores more
40%

Racing d'Abidjan at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Racing d'Abidjan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Bouaké 0–0 Racing d'Abidjan

Bouaké and Racing d'Abidjan drew 0-0 in Ligue 1 on February 8, 2026.