Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bouaké vs Mouna — Ligue 1 2019

Bouaké
Bouaké
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Mouna
Mouna
2/21/2026Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 19

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Bouaké30%
×Draw29%
Mouna41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bouaké
0.98
Mouna
1.19

Mouna creates 21% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 45 away

creates per match

Bouaké
0.80
Mouna
1.27

allows per match

Bouaké
1.11
Mouna
1.16

finishing

Bouaké+0.00on par
Mouna+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bouaké ↓

Mouna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Bouaké or draw
59%
Bouaké or Mouna
71%
Draw or Mouna
70%

Winning margin

Bouaké wins by 2+
11%
Mouna wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Bouaké 1+ goals
62%
Bouaké 2+ goals
26%
Bouaké 3+ goals
8%
Mouna 1+ goals
70%
Mouna 2+ goals
33%
Mouna 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Bouaké (draw refunded)
43%
Mouna (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bouaké at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.11 · 89 matches

Mouna away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.16 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bouaké attack 0.80 + Mouna defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.98

Mouna attack 1.27 + Bouaké defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bouaké scores more
30%
level
29%
Mouna scores more
41%

Mouna at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mouna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bouaké vs Mouna

Mouna beat Bouaké 2-1 in Ligue 1 on February 21, 2026.