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Bouaké vs Lys Sassandra — Ligue 1 2019

Bouaké
Bouaké
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Lys Sassandra
Lys Sassandra
2/19/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 19Stade de Bouaké

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Bouaké32%
×Draw31%
Lys Sassandra37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bouaké
0.94
Lys Sassandra
1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 89 home / 59 away

creates per match

Bouaké
0.80
Lys Sassandra
0.92

allows per match

Bouaké
1.11
Lys Sassandra
1.08

finishing

Bouaké+0.00on par
Lys Sassandra+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bouaké ↓

Lys Sassandra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Bouaké or draw
63%
Bouaké or Lys Sassandra
69%
Draw or Lys Sassandra
68%

Winning margin

Bouaké wins by 2+
12%
Lys Sassandra wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Bouaké 1+ goals
61%
Bouaké 2+ goals
24%
Bouaké 3+ goals
7%
Lys Sassandra 1+ goals
64%
Lys Sassandra 2+ goals
27%
Lys Sassandra 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Bouaké (draw refunded)
47%
Lys Sassandra (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bouaké at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.11 · 89 matches

Lys Sassandra away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.08 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bouaké attack 0.80 + Lys Sassandra defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.94

Lys Sassandra attack 0.92 + Bouaké defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Bouaké scores more
32%
level
31%
Lys Sassandra scores more
37%

Lys Sassandra at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Lys Sassandra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Bouaké 2–0 Lys Sassandra

Bouaké beat Lys Sassandra 2-0 in Ligue 1 on February 19, 2025.

The match was played at Stade de Bouaké in Bouaké.