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Botswana vs Rwanda — Friendlies 2026

Botswana
Botswana
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rwanda
Rwanda
3/22/2024FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 3Stade Kianja Barea Mahamasina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Botswana24%
×Draw39%
Rwanda37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botswana
0.56
Rwanda
0.78

Rwanda creates 39% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

creates per match

Botswana
0.50
Rwanda
0.88

allows per match

Botswana
0.67
Rwanda
0.63

finishing

Botswana+0.00on par
Rwanda+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Under
  • Under85
  • Over15

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

77%No
  • No77
  • Yes23

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botswana ↓

Rwanda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–026%
0–120%
0–28%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–04%
2–13%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (26%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
74%26%1.5
39%61%2.5
15%85%3.5
5%95%4.5
1%99%

Double chance

Botswana or draw
63%
Botswana or Rwanda
61%
Draw or Rwanda
76%

Winning margin

Botswana wins by 2+
6%
Rwanda wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Botswana 1+ goals
43%
Botswana 2+ goals
11%
Botswana 3+ goals
2%
Rwanda 1+ goals
54%
Rwanda 2+ goals
18%
Rwanda 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Botswana (draw refunded)
39%
Rwanda (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
12%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botswana at home — creates 0.50, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

Rwanda away — creates 0.88, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botswana attack 0.50 + Rwanda defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.56

Rwanda attack 0.88 + Botswana defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Botswana scores more
24%
level
39%
Rwanda scores more
37%

Rwanda at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Rwanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies: Botswana 0–0 Rwanda

Botswana and Rwanda drew 0-0 in Friendlies on March 22, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Kianja Barea Mahamasina in Antananarivo.