Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Botswana vs Mozambique — Friendlies 2026

Botswana
Botswana
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Mozambique
Mozambique
1/8/2024FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 3Johannesburg Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Botswana43%
×Draw32%
Mozambique24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botswana
1.08
Mozambique
0.73

Botswana creates 48% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

creates per match

Botswana
0.50
Mozambique
0.78

allows per match

Botswana
0.67
Mozambique
1.67

finishing

Botswana+0.00on par
Mozambique+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botswana ↓

Mozambique →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Botswana or draw
76%
Botswana or Mozambique
68%
Draw or Mozambique
57%

Winning margin

Botswana wins by 2+
18%
Mozambique wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Botswana 1+ goals
66%
Botswana 2+ goals
29%
Botswana 3+ goals
10%
Mozambique 1+ goals
52%
Mozambique 2+ goals
17%
Mozambique 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Botswana (draw refunded)
64%
Mozambique (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botswana at home — creates 0.50, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

Mozambique away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botswana attack 0.50 + Mozambique defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.08

Mozambique attack 0.78 + Botswana defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Botswana scores more
43%
level
32%
Mozambique scores more
24%

Botswana at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Botswana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies: Botswana 1–1 Mozambique

Botswana and Mozambique drew 1-1 in Friendlies on January 8, 2024.

The match was played at Johannesburg Stadium in Johannesburg, GA.